China's foreign trade transformation behind the expansion of imports

"Recently, an international authoritative organization estimated that China's domestic consumption will surpass the United States for the first time in 2018. This means that after 2018, the world's largest market will no longer be the United States but China. This Regardless of whether the forecast is accurate or not, China’s potential market size is three to four times that of the United States, and it is constantly changing from potential to reality, which is a foreseeable future prospect.” Chinese Foreign Minister Yi said at the China-Latin America Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum This statement in the opening speech of the China-Latin America Entrepreneurs Council has attracted the attention of many people in the industry.

Yi also said, "With the passage of time, China's trade structure with the United States and other countries will undergo fundamental changes sooner or later. When visiting the United States now, especially to places in the United States, the governors and entrepreneurs of various states are not concerned about What China exports to them, but what they can export to China. It will become an unstoppable trend to be concerned about and willing to enter China's market more. In the future, many countries, including the United States, may export to China. It will exceed imports from China, the structure of Sino-foreign trade will also reverse, and China may face a deficit."

"In fact, the Chinese government's views on China's trade status and foreign trade have changed. This is not the first time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said this." In an interview with a reporter from China Trade News, he said that Yi's new formulation in his speech is that China will become the world's largest consumer market in 2018.

Zhong Feiteng said that this change has a context to follow. As early as April 7, 2013, when President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, he mentioned that in the next five years, China will import commodities worth about 10 trillion US dollars, and the scale of foreign investment will reach 500 billion US dollars. , outbound tourism may exceed 400 million people. "From President Xi's mention of import data, foreign investment data and outbound tourism data, to China's decision to hold the China International Import Expo in November 2018, we can clearly see some new trends." Zhong Feiteng said.

In the past so many years, no country has surpassed the United States as the world's largest consumer market, and Japan has not surpassed it. In Zhong Feiteng's view, one of the reasons why the United States can gain the right to speak internationally is that the United States has a huge consumer market. "We used to say that 'China's contribution to world economic growth is 30%', but this statement is rather abstract. If China becomes the world's largest consumer market and largest import market, then the contribution of China's economic growth to the world economy will change. If you can see and touch it, the world will see China’s contribution more clearly in the future. This is of great significance for re-understanding the relationship between China and the world.”

Zhong Feiteng believes that this change in foreign trade will also promote the domestic supply-side structural reform. Because increasing the scale of external imports can stimulate domestic manufacturers to improve product quality. Such stimulation is necessary in an era when consumers are becoming more discerning and demanding of product quality.

Since the reform and opening up, my country has maintained a relatively large-scale trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves for a long time. With the increase in imports and the more acceptable trade deficit changes, my country's balance of payments structure is also facing new adjustments. "At that time, China's economy was small, so it was necessary to keep a lot of foreign exchange reserves. But as China's economy grows larger and larger, whether it still needs so many foreign exchange reserves is another question. I bought a lot of U.S. Treasury bonds in the past, and the effect It’s not good.” Zhong Feiteng said that from a systemic point of view, expanding the scale of imports and tying up the economies of more countries can weaken the hegemony of the US dollar, and expanding imports will also expand the foreign use of the renminbi, which also supports the internationalization of the renminbi. effect.

Generally speaking, the above-mentioned changes involve the progress of my country's foreign trade thinking framework and opening-up strategy. For example, Zhong Feiteng said that some of the original policies to encourage exports should be adjusted appropriately. In the past, processing and manufacturing attracted attention. Now, more consideration must be given to the environment, hygiene, health, etc., and more investment must be made in these areas; To readjust the foreign trade strategy, the main social contradiction.